In his article published on November 21, 2024, Kamran Bokhari provides a thorough analysis of the challenges facing the incoming U.S. administration under Donald Trump in the Middle East. Bokhari emphasizes the need for carefully balancing relations among key regional powers such as Israel, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey, pointing to the multiple complexities the U.S. administration must navigate to ensure regional stability. In this commentary, I will expand on the main ideas of the article and focus on critical points that merit further analysis and attention.
1. Iran: Internal and External Challenges
A. Internal Challenges:
Iran, under its hardline religious leadership, faces significant challenges both domestically and internationally. Domestically, Iran is witnessing strong opposition from political and civil forces seeking to reform the regime and ease its restrictive policies. This opposition has prompted the leadership to adopt stringent measures to suppress attempts to alter the status quo, exacerbating internal tensions and hindering possibilities for political and social reform.
B. External Challenges:
On the international front, Iran’s new president recognizes the importance of establishing positive relations with the incoming U.S. administration, particularly given current geopolitical shifts. However, achieving this faces significant obstacles, notably the apprehensions of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who wields considerable influence over both domestic and foreign policy. Therefore, it is crucial for those engaged with Iran to support the new leadership through well-considered steps that foster dialogue and mutual understanding while respecting Iran’s internal dynamics.
C. Refraining from Using Hardline Proxies:
Iran’s restraint in utilizing hardline proxies in the Middle East is a key step toward reducing regional tensions. This could be achieved through reciprocal agreements, including easing U.S. sanctions on Iran. Additionally, completing its nuclear program for peaceful, developmental, or even military purposes might help establish a security balance in the region, especially with other nations possessing nuclear reactors. Such a balance could reduce conflict likelihoods and promote regional stability.
2. Saudi Arabia: Real Power and Challenges
A. Saudi Arabia’s Strengths:
Despite being one of the region’s prominent economic and religious powers, Saudi Arabia’s leadership as a leading Arab state is not absolute. The kingdom’s strength derives from two main sources: oil and wealth, which provide significant economic leverage to influence regional and global policies. Furthermore, Saudi Arabia’s custodianship of the Two Holy Mosques in Mecca and Medina enhances its status as a global religious destination, granting it additional influence among Muslims worldwide.
B. Egypt’s Decline in Arab Leadership:
Historically, Egypt was regarded as the leading Arab state, particularly during the era of Gamal Abdel Nasser, who bolstered its diplomatic and political role in the region. However, the Camp David Accords led to a decline in Egypt’s role, paving the way for Saudi Arabia’s rise as a prominent regional power. This shift reflects geopolitical and economic changes in the region, with Saudi Arabia assuming a more significant role in shaping regional policies and addressing security and political challenges.
C. Challenges to Normalization with Israel:
Saudi Arabia cannot fully normalize relations with Israel without considering its pivotal role as the host of the Two Holy Mosques and the importance of Islamic pilgrimage, which constitutes a significant portion of its economic income. Moreover, the hesitation toward normalization is not merely a reaction to events like the October 7 incident but also stems from profound religious and political ties linking Saudi Arabia to the Palestinian cause. These factors make it difficult for Saudi Arabia to take swift normalization steps without meeting specific conditions.
D. Conditions for Saudi-Israel Normalization:
Normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel may occur under the framework of the Abraham Accords if certain essential conditions are met. These include halting Israeli military operations in Gaza (and Lebanon), recognizing a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, and granting it full sovereignty rights. Meeting these conditions could contribute to greater regional stability and balance of power with Iran, thereby enhancing prospects for peace and regional cooperation.
3. Turkey: A Key Role in Addressing Regional Challenges
A. Importance of Turkey’s Positive Role:
Turkey plays a critical role in achieving regional balance, particularly in addressing internal and external security threats such as Kurdish separatist movements. Providing Turkey with the necessary attention and support to strengthen its domestic stability could enhance its positive regional role. Additionally, improving U.S.-Turkey relations could bolster security and economic cooperation between the two countries, contributing to overall regional stability.
B. Improving Relations with the U.S.:
Turkey hopes to capitalize on Donald Trump’s return to the White House to improve relations with Washington. This improvement could strengthen Turkey’s regional standing and help achieve broader Middle Eastern stability. Enhanced relations may enable Turkey to serve as a mediator in regional conflicts and contribute to peaceful resolutions of ongoing disputes.
4. Regional Security Balance and Influence
A. Achieving a Quadruple Power Balance:
Establishing a balance of power in the Middle East requires managing complex and multifaceted relationships with key regional players such as Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Israel. The incoming U.S. administration must adopt balanced diplomatic policies that consider the interests of all parties and strive to enhance security and economic cooperation among them. This balance could contribute to long-term regional stability and reduce the likelihood of armed conflicts.
B. The U.S. Role as an International Mediator:
The United States plays a vital role as an international mediator in regional conflicts. The incoming administration must leverage this role to promote dialogue and understanding among regional powers. By adopting balanced diplomatic policies that respect the interests of all parties, the U.S. can help achieve peaceful solutions to ongoing conflicts and foster stability in the region.
Kamran Bokhari’s article clearly illustrates the complexity of the political landscape in the Middle East, where the incoming U.S. administration must manage intricate relationships with several major regional powers. Effectively engaging with Iran requires a deep understanding of its internal and external challenges. At the same time, Saudi Arabia must balance its economic and religious interests to make progress toward regional stability and cooperation. Turkey remains a pivotal player demanding special attention to ensure security and political balance in the region.
Ultimately, the success of the U.S. administration in achieving a quadruple power balance will be key to peace and stability in the Middle East. This requires adopting well-considered diplomatic policies that foster cooperation and understanding among regional powers, providing necessary support to new leadership in Iran, encouraging Saudi Arabia to take further steps toward openness and resolving the Yemen crisis, and enhancing Turkey’s positive role in addressing regional challenges, including the Kurdish separatist issue. Through such measures, the Middle East can embark on a new era of stability and progress, free from the conflicts and disputes that have long impacted its future and strained its relationship with the world.
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